TRANSACTIONS OF THE KRYLOV STATE RESEARCH CENTRE

Science journal

 
ISSN (print) 2542-2324 /(online) 2618-8244


Articles of The Transactions of KSRC








Techno-economic life cycle analysis for prospective commercial fleet



Full text article ( in russian)

Year

 
2018

Issue

 
385

Volume

 
3

Pages

 
77-84

Caption

 
Techno-economic life cycle analysis for prospective commercial fleet

Authors

 
Kovtun N.L.

Keywords

 
ship life cycle, simulation, statistical analysis, reliability, random markovian processes, Kolmagorov differential equations, forecast, life-cycle cost.

DOI

 
10.24937/2542-2324-2018-3-385-77-84

Summary

 
Object and purpose of researchThe paper considers the task of forecasting future changes in production and economic potential, e.g. as applied to commercial or fishing fleets considering various ship operation strategies throughout the ship.
Subject matter and methodsThe task under consideration is of dynamic and stochastic nature, i.e., it is a task with ambiguously defined input data, and, therefore, it can be represented as a random Markovian process and solved with appropriate mathematic tools, namely, Kolmogorov differential equations by dynamic average method. This method is widely used for estimation of life-cycle cost and time characteristics for sophisticated engineering systems of various purposes. The method is analyzing changes in type states of similar elements in a complex system. In our case it concerns changes in lifecycle phases for ships of similar types and displacements.
Main resultsThe task is suggested to be solved by a method seeking balanced solutions for the “cost-effectivenesscycles” triad. The dynamic average method for fleet sizing takes into account ship operation schedules based on shipowners’ requirements, as well as reliability, durability and maintainability characteristics of vessels, production capacities of shipbuilding and ship repair yards, financial resources and their spread over the life cycle phases of ships considered for the planned fleet.
Conclusion.The method makes it possible to model various alternative options in construction, operation and repair of future vessels to find out the best one based on technical and economic criteria. The purpose of these modeling is to keep up the production and economic potential of the fleet by choosing the rational strategy for acquisition, maintenance, scheduled overhaul and emergency repair activities. An associated task of decommissioning obsolete vessels and their replacement with newbuildings is also resolved. This philosophy is expected to minimize the risks of financial penalties related to construction and maintenance of obsolete fleet, while providing the required numbers of operating vessels.

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ISSN (print) 2542-2324 / ISSN (online) 2618-8244

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